Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 29.570517 32.633347 36.030103 40.106153 44.904322 50.423653 57.327579
2025-07-20 24.678379 28.657642 33.431310 39.690500 47.855686 58.411226 73.567191
2025-07-27 21.797149 26.312634 32.071872 40.193085 51.777094 68.471252 96.037915
2025-08-03 19.488326 24.219614 30.543544 39.992696 54.515565 77.565978 121.126992
2025-08-10 17.641945 22.426635 29.063121 39.459111 56.483700 85.947732 149.420613
2025-08-17 16.326615 21.167676 28.105359 39.449143 59.167710 96.342731 188.485567
2025-08-24 15.126578 19.921621 26.976304 38.925803 60.777975 105.239214 231.435989
2025-08-31 14.117008 18.842861 25.955224 38.382705 62.177052 114.206853 283.870576
2025-09-07 13.264102 17.914392 25.055234 37.887539 63.524706 123.619370 350.265269
2025-09-14 12.546177 17.127244 24.292516 37.509283 65.006910 134.061517 438.942096
2025-09-21 11.844824 16.309908 23.398808 36.758439 65.516225 142.207994 535.707078
2025-09-28 11.669051 16.301191 23.842558 38.587477 72.288578 172.723464 880.984617
2025-10-05 11.178420 15.758705 23.336053 38.509122 74.605182 190.939659 1260.951335
2025-10-12 10.748802 15.287005 22.912572 38.545751 77.269317 212.837905 1953.345374
2025-10-19 10.447242 15.005489 22.800577 39.218028 81.860930 247.269351 3845.113368
2025-10-26 10.064694 14.562328 22.355428 39.107362 84.251612 274.695647 7749.069858
2025-11-02 9.666397 14.068515 21.777314 38.626266 85.443582 297.898917 17711.483305
2025-11-09 9.359588 13.713905 21.432355 38.631836 88.187189 334.382156 109609.095981
2025-11-16 9.016076 13.276776 20.898195 38.130896 89.183344 361.991039 NaN
2025-11-23 8.694622 12.862085 20.379145 37.606835 89.997509 390.679719 NaN
2025-11-30 8.400147 12.480819 19.900356 37.127544 90.877196 422.697358 NaN
2025-12-07 8.137068 12.143032 19.485570 36.760944 92.103682 461.651541 NaN
2025-12-14 7.852827 11.755084 18.948302 36.032286 91.813444 486.853575 NaN